Halloween might have ghosts and goblins, but it's the AI news giving us the real shivers today. From Adobe's existential crisis to breakthrough GPU-accelerated agent sandboxes, the AI world isn't taking October 31st off.
Adobe's Spooky Halloween: Struggling to Convince Investors It Can Survive the AI Era
Adobe โ once the undisputed king of creative software โ is having a real horror show this Halloween as it desperately tries to convince Wall Street it won't become the Blockbuster Video of the AI revolution. According to Mercury News reporting this morning, investors are getting increasingly spooked about whether Adobe's cash cows (Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere) can compete with the new generation of AI-native creative tools that can generate entire campaigns from a text prompt. The company's stock tumbled 4.2% yesterday despite Adobe showcasing its Firefly model and integration plans. Here's the deal: Adobe is trapped in the innovator's dilemma โ protect the $14B revenue from Creative Cloud subscriptions or cannibalize itself with truly revolutionary AI offerings? Meanwhile, startups with nothing to lose are shipping weekly improvements while Adobe committee-approves quarterly updates. Plot twist: Adobe actually has some of the most robust training data in the industry โ if they could just move at startup speed.
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Universal Music Group just angered thousands of Udio AI users by restricting what songs they can generate โ turns out music giants aren't ready to let AI remix their cash cows without taking a big cut.
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A former quant trader at Headlands Technologies is fighting back, asking courts yesterday to dismiss charges that he stole proprietary AI trading algorithms, arguing prosecutors can't even specify what code was allegedly taken.
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HADES, a breakthrough GPU-accelerated sandbox for AI agents revealed last night, allows multiple coding agents to work in parallel environments โ think of it as creating a whole dev team of AI coders that don't step on each other's toes.
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AWS smashed Wall Street's expectations in earnings released this morning, with cloud infrastructure revenue jumping 29% year-over-year as AI workloads continue to devour compute resources like Halloween candy.
๐ API WATCH
Claude 3.5 Sonnet vs. GPT-4o Mini: The Mid-Tier Model War Heats Up
This morning's benchmarks for Anthropic's newly released Claude 3.5 Sonnet show it's punching well above its weight class at just $3/M tokens. It scored 90.2% on MMLU (matching GPT-4o) while maintaining a 16K context window and blazing inference speed. The real shocker? It outperformed GPT-4o Mini on code generation with a 78.3% pass rate on HumanEval compared to Mini's 76.1%. For teams building production AI that need reliability without breaking the bank, Claude 3.5 Sonnet is currently the sweet spot. Still, if you're doing heavy reasoning tasks, GPT-4o's edge in step-by-step problem-solving (92.6% vs 87.4% on GSM8K) might justify the higher cost. Best technical value as of today? Claude 3.5 Sonnet for most applications, GPT-4o Mini if you need vision capabilities.
๐ฐ FOLLOW THE MONEY
AI Infrastructure Boom Continues as Nvidia Breaks $1.2T and AWS Crushes Earnings
The AI gravy train keeps rolling as infrastructure providers report record earnings. AWS grew 29% year-over-year according to this morning's announcement, citing AI workloads as the primary driver. Meanwhile, Nvidia crossed the $1.2 trillion market cap threshold yesterday after announcing their H200 chips are shipping ahead of schedule. The money story that matters: the bifurcation between AI infrastructure winners and software question marks is growing. While NVDA is up 143% YTD and AWS is driving AMZN's growth, application-layer companies like Adobe (-18% YTD) are struggling to prove their AI strategy. Smart money is still betting that the picks and shovels of the AI gold rush (chips, cloud, specialized hardware) will outperform the prospectors themselves.
๐ ๏ธ TOOL SPOTLIGHT
Sebastian.run
Launched in beta just yesterday, Sebastian.run lets you build entire mobile apps from natural language prompts โ no code, no templates. The tool uses what its creator calls 'vibe coding' to generate both frontend and backend code simultaneously. I just watched a demo where it built a functional meditation app with user accounts and in-app purchases in under 30 seconds. The no-code revolution just got AI-powered afterburners.
๐ผ SUCCESS STORY
Aurca AI
Prediction markets are notoriously inefficient, and Aurca.ai's launch yesterday is turning that problem into profit. Their tool uses Bayesian methods and JAX-powered machine learning to spot mispriced betting contracts on platforms like Kalshi. The company reported this morning that beta users have already identified over $430,000 in arbitrage opportunities in just the first 24 hours. Early adopters report ROIs of 22-37% on political event contracts where the model spotted significant divergence between market prices and statistically sound probabilities. The founder tweeted this morning: 'We're basically giving people a money printer for prediction markets.'
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๐ BY THE NUMBERS
$2 trillion
The amount Big Tech needs to generate in AI revenue by 2030 to justify their massive capital expenditures, according to analysis published by Where's Your Red At? this morning โ that's roughly equivalent to the entire GDP of Italy.
$350 million
The size of AI hiring startup Mercor's Series C round closed yesterday, making it the largest funding event of the week and signaling that investors still see massive opportunity in using AI to solve talent matching problems.
29%
AWS's year-over-year revenue growth announced in this morning's earnings call, driven primarily by companies scrambling to build out AI infrastructure โ every percentage point represents roughly $2.3B in additional annual revenue.
4.2%
Adobe's stock drop as of market close yesterday, reflecting Wall Street's growing skepticism about the company's AI strategy and ability to compete with newer, more nimble AI-native creative tools.
โ ๏ธ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
The information provided in this newsletter, including the "Follow the Money" and "API Watch" sections, is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. You should not treat any of the newsletter's content as such. Promptobello does not recommend that any cryptocurrency, security, or investment should be bought, sold, or held by you. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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